Modeling Independence and the Failure of the Democratic-Republican Party Politics

In a discussion of Charlie Crist's independent candidacy for US Senate in Florida, I noted in a comment here the other day that, however one might interpret his declaration of independence, "whatever Crist does will likely become a media template for what independence is" if only because there is no single effective model for political independence. That template is already being constructed. Today, Independent Political Report highlights an editorial by Mary Ann Lindley at Tallahassee.com arguing that "a Crist victory could change politics." Some excerpts:

This election year could be just a bizarre as 2000, but in a different way, with Gov. Charlie Crist leading us into what may be a new way of electing leaders outside of the traditional and over-stuffed two-party system. The governor was brave enough to abandon the Republican Party, or acknowledge, I think fairly, that the party had already abandoned him. Its hard-right turn has also put off many moderate Republicans who crave a more centrist alternative, though not necessarily Crist. . . .

Sending an independent to the U.S. Senate would change the face of elections for years to come in Florida, and maybe nationwide. That increasing numbers of people are disenchanted with two-party politics — tired of their financial power and predictable, unbending ideologies — is reflected in voter registration numbers. According to the state elections office, the fastest-growing group of Florida voters isn't those registering as Democrats or Republicans but as "no party affiliated" people, such as Crist. . . .

the more dramatic and long-lasting change will occur if Crist shows that an independent candidate can win . . . it will free up a lot of people to run for office who are interested in serving, but just don't want to be a party to either party. Seeing more plausible independent candidates would be a big change.

At Pollster, Michael McDonald supplies the full voter registration statistics for all states that track party registration. As of March 2010, Florida logged 4,621,362 Democrats, 3, 974,019 Republicans, 2,121,636 independents (i.e. unaffiliated) and 354,529 minor party registrants: 46% Democrat, 36% Republican and 22% independent or third party. A recent poll by the St. Petersburg Times finds that Crist is currently pulling support from across the political spectrum:

Of the registered voters surveyed, 30 percent were for Crist, 27 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Democratic front-runner Kendrick Meek . . . The secret to Crist's success so far: his broader appeal across the political spectrum in the newly reconfigured three-man race. He is backed by 39 percent of independents, 38 percent of Democrats and 26 percent of Republicans. Rubio, a former House speaker from Miami, and Meek, a Miami congressman, are drawing most of their support from members of their own parties.

With the continuing decline in the number of duopolist dead-enders, that is, those who still cling to the thoroughly discredited model of Democratic-Republican Party politics, it will become increasingly difficult for any political hopeful to build an electoral majority primarily on the basis of support from members of his or her own party.