Record High Independent Identification: 40%

From Gallup:

The percentage of Americans identifying as political independents increased in 2011, as is common in a non-election year, although the 40% who did so is the highest Gallup has measured, by one percentage point. More Americans continue to identify as Democrats than as Republicans, 31% to 27%.

These results are based on more than 20,000 interviews conducted in 20 separate Gallup polls in 2011. Gallup has computed annual averages of party identification since 1988, when it began regularly conducting interviews by telephone. The prior high percentage of independents was 39% in 1995 and 2007.

Gallup records from 1951-1988 -- based on face-to-face interviewing -- indicate that the percentage of independents was generally in the low 30% range during those years, suggesting that the proportion of independents in 2011 was the largest in at least 60 years. . . .

Increased independent identification is not uncommon in the year before a presidential election year, but the sluggish economy, record levels of distrust in government, and unfavorable views of both parties helped to create an environment that fostered political independence more than in any other pre-election year. 

Earth to Americans: Your Representative Is the Problem

One of the enduring paradoxes of American public opinion is that even though voters veritably despise the US Congress as a whole, they nonetheless give their own congressional representatives the benefit of the doubt.  It is time for American voters to face the obvious truth that their own representatives are part of the problem and to cease returning these scoundrels to office election after election.  We have reached a point at which there is effectively no unreasonable doubt when it comes to the mendacity of the Republican-Democrat political class.  From today's column at IVN:

A Gallup poll released on Friday proclaimed that the survey group had found “record high anti-incumbent sentiment toward Congress.” The situation certainly sounds dire. 76% of registered voters told the pollster that most members of Congress do not deserve re-election, the highest such percentage the organization has found in nearly two decades of surveys. The previous high of 70% was recorded in August. And, once again, the national consensus spans all partisan lines. 68% of Democrats, 75% of Republicans and 82% of Independents told Gallup that most members of Congress do not deserve re-election.

The situation is quite different, however, when one inquires about registered voters’ views toward their own representatives. In the very same poll, Gallup found that 53% of registered voters believe their own representative in the US House deserves to be re-elected, compared with just 39% who said the opposite. Historically, Americans tend to have more positive views about their own representatives than of Congress as a whole. The 53% majority who believe their own representative deserves re-election is just 5% higher than the survey’s record low of 48% on this particular question in 1992.

Unfortunately, so long as Americans continue to turn a blind eye toward the deficiencies of their own representatives, we will all continue to suffer from inadequate representation in government. When we cast our ballots, after all, we do not vote on Congress as a whole, but rather for our own individual delegate. If we are going to clean house, we have to begin at home. If you desire to “throw the bums out,” as the old saying goes, you must first stop voting them in.

24% Would Vote for Third Party Candidate for President

From UPI:

Almost one-quarter of U.S. voters say they might vote for a third-party presidential candidate, with young voters and independents more likely.  More than four in 10 of voters between the ages of 18 and 29, and 36 percent of those who identify themselves as independents told the Zogby Poll they might for an alternative to Republicans and Democrats. Twenty-four percent of all voters said they might vote for a third party.  Men at 31 percent were almost twice as likely as women at 16 percent to say they would consider a third-party candidate.

It is fairly clear why younger people and Independents would be more likely to consider voting for an Independent or third party candidate for president.  But how can we account for the disparity between men and women?  Why are so few women willing to declare their Independence from the Republican and Democratic parties? 

Poll: 55% Say a National Third Party is Needed

A majority of Americans continue to say that the Democrats and Republicans do such a poor job of representing the people of the United States that a third party is necessary.  From Gallup:

Americans are highly dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation and have low economic confidence, creating an environment in which a third-party challenger could find significant backing from American voters. Indeed, 55% of Americans say the two major parties do such an inadequate job of representing the American people that a third party is needed.

Americans' current views regarding a third party are similar to what was measured last year and in 2007. However, in other years over the past decade, interest in a third party has been somewhat lower -- particularly in September 2008, in the middle of a spirited presidential election campaign involving Obama and John McCain, the two major-party candidates.

A slight majority of Democrats say a third party is not needed, while Republicans are evenly split on the issue. Independents, representing 44% of the population in this September poll, are, however, very much in favor of a third party -- with 68% saying it is needed.

But who are those people who think the Republicans and Democrats are doing an adequate job?  

Poll: Historic Levels of Negativity Toward US Government

A new Gallup poll finds historic levels of negativity toward the US government among Americans.  Excerpt:

• 82% of Americans disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job.
• 69% say they have little or no confidence in the legislative branch of government, an all-time high and up from 63% in 2010.
• 57% have little or no confidence in the federal government to solve domestic problems, exceeding the previous high of 53% recorded in 2010 and well exceeding the 43% who have little or no confidence in the government to solve international problems.
• 53% have little or no confidence in the men and women who seek or hold elected office.
• Americans believe, on average, that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every tax dollar, similar to a year ago, but up significantly from 46 cents a decade ago and from an average 43 cents three decades ago.
• 49% of Americans believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens. In 2003, less than a third (30%) believed this.

Poll: Only 6% of Voters Think Congress Deserves Re-election

Another new low for the Democrats and Republicans, this time in a CBS News poll:

Just 12 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing - the same as the lowest percentage recorded in this poll, reached in October 2008, right before the November elections. Dissatisfaction with Congress cuts across party lines. Republicans, Democrats, and independents all overwhelmingly disapprove of the job Congress is doing. . . .

In keeping with Congress' dismal review, just 6 percent of registered voters think most members deserve re-election - the lowest percentage ever in CBS News Polls during the past 20 years, and a lower percentage than the 9 percent who thought so right before the 2010 midterms. . . .

Americans are usually more positive when assessing their own representative in Congress.
That's true now, too - 33 percent say their representative deserves re election - but nearly six in 10 registered voters don't think their own representative deserves re-election. 

Americans consistently say that they want to "throw all the bums out," but then come election day, they almost invariably vote to keep them in office.  How can we explain this contradiction?

Poll: Half of Americans Say the Parties Do Not Represent the People

Some interesting numbers from Rasmussen:

Voters are more convinced than ever that neither major political party in Washington, DC is on their side.  Now roughly one-out-of-two Likely U.S. Voters (49%) think it’s fair to say neither party in Congress is the party of the American people, up six points from a year ago. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 32% say it’s not fair to characterize the two parties that way, while 18% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here).

A plurality (44%) of both Republicans and Democrats agree that neither party in Congress represents the people. But voters not affiliated with either of the parties are even more emphatic: 60% feel that way. 

Only 32% of voters in this survey stated that they believe the major parties represent the American people!  Predictably, the dead-enders of the ruling parties are most likely to state that their party does represent the American people, but it is noteworthy that nearly half of Democrats and Republicans also admit that neither major party does so.  An obvious question thus arises: if nearly half of Democrats and Republicans believe that neither major party represents the American people, why would they continue to support the Republican and Democratic parties?  

Poll: 72% May Consider Voting for an Independent or Third Party Candidate for President

From a new poll by Reason-Rupe:

The latest Reason-Rupe poll results reveal a potential opportunity for a third-party presidential candidate. Seventy two percent of Americans say they would or might consider voting for a third-party presidential candidate, while 48 percent of Americans say they would support a presidential candidate who was “conservative on economic issues and liberal on social issues.” Eighteen percent of Americans said they would strongly support such a candidate, and this is presuming the candidate ran under the banner of a third party. Finally, 37 percent of Americans said they would consider voting for a third-party Tea Party candidate if she or he entered the race against President Barack Obama and the Republican nominee in 2012. These are significant chunks of the population willing to consider and potentially vote for a non-conventional candidate.

Several factors are likely driving this support for non-conventional presidential candidates.
First, there is overwhelming evidence that the American electorate breaks down into more than just simple liberal or conservative blocs. ABC News analyst Matthew Dowd finds that 51 percent of Americans do not fit into conventional liberal or conservative buckets. Gallup finds that at least 44 percent of Americans do not fit this mold. The Reason-Rupe poll also finds that 44 percent do not fit this conventional division. These numbers suggest that traditional Democratic or Republican presidential candidates may not represent the political views of nearly half of all American voters . . .

Polling a Three-Way Presidential Contest

Public Policy Polling has released the results of a survey gauging support for particular third party Independent candidates in next year's presidential election.   Excerpt:

we took a look at seven possible independent candidates against Obama and his strongest GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, and found that the chances of defection by GOP-inclined voters are stronger than are cracks in the Democrats’ armor. Despite their grumbling, Democrats remain pretty united behind Obama, and six of the seven possible independent candidates would hurt Romney more than the president. 

The seven potential Independent candidates mentioned in the survey were: Michael Bloomberg, Jon Huntsman, Ralph Nader, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump.  Bloomberg (10%), Palin (21%), Paul (15%) and Trump (18%) broke through to double digits.  You have to be careful with PPP surveys though because their samples always skew toward the Democrats and Republicans.  While most polls these days find that 40% of their respondents identify themselves as Independents, only 21% of the respondents to this survey were Independents.

Poll: 57% of Voters Want a Third Major Party

From an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Douglas Schoen and Patrick Caddell.  Excerpt:

The United States is in the midst of what we would both call a prerevolutionary moment, and there is widespread support for fundamental change in the system. An increasing number of Americans are now searching beyond the two parties for bold and effective leadership. . . .

What's more, a poll of 1,000 Americans conducted by Douglas E. Schoen LLC in April found that a solid majority of Americans are now looking for alternatives to the two-party system. Overall, a majority (57%) of all respondents said there is a need for a third party.

More than half (51%) of voters favored having a third major political party. Nearly one-third (31%) said that having a third major party in our country is very important. Voters favored having a major third party run a candidate for president in 2012 58%-13%—with one in five saying they were absolutely certain or very likely to vote for a third-party candidate.

In line with these findings, 52% of all respondents in a May Gallup poll said there is a need for a third party, and for the first time in Gallup's history, a majority of Republicans embraced the idea. In a June Rasmussen poll, 30% of respondents said they would consider voting for a third-party candidate for president in 2012.

Action Alert: Pressure the Pollsters

From today's column at CAIVN:

Four contenders for the GOP's presidential nomination are polling competitively with President Obama among registered voters, according to a new Gallup poll.  How do potential Independent or third party presidential hopefuls match up against the candidates of the major parties?  We don't know, because the pollsters never ask.

The new survey, published on Monday, asked just over 1000 registered voters how they would cast their ballots if the 2012 presidential election were held today, matching up the President against four potential rivals from the Republican Party's primary field: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney ran at the head of the pack, closely edging out the President 48% to 46%.  Texas Governor Rick Perry polled evenly with the President 47% to 47%.  President Obama had a narrow edge over Texas Rep. Ron Paul 47% to 45%, while outpolling Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann by a more comfortable margin 48% to 44%.  All four results were within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4%.

While Republican and Democratic respondents dutifully fell out along partisan lines, supporting their own by massive margins, Independent opinion more closely resembled the larger sample.  Interestingly, however, among Independents three of the four Republicans outpolled the president.  Once again, Mitt Romney led the pack.  Independents preferred the former Massachusetts governor to President Obama 47% to 44%.  Ron Paul was also more popular than the President among Independents.  The longtime Texas Congressman came out in front of Obama by three percentage points, 46% to 43%.  The margin between Obama and Perry was slightly tighter, though Independents still preferred the Texas governor to the incumbent, 46% to 44%.  The only Republican whom Independents did not prefer over the President was Michelle Bachmann, who garnered just 42% support to the president's 48%.

Unfortunately, the survey did not ask respondents if they would have preferred an Independent or third party candidate to any of the the representatives of the major parties, despite the fact that a majority of Americans consistently tell pollsters they would consider voting for an Independent or third party candidate for President.  Indeed, a Gallup poll from May found that 52% of all respondents and 68% of Independents said that the Democrats and Republicans do such a poor job representing the American people that the country needs a third major party.

Perhaps one might object, in defense of the pollster, that there are no high profile Independent or third party presidential hopefuls who have definitively thrown their hats into the political ring.  But has that ever stopped a pollster before when it comes to gauging support for Democrats and Republicans?  Like many other polling organizations, Gallup routinely measures support for the President against a "generic" rival from the other major party.  As Gallup's report on the most recent survey states, the organization has already conducted six surveys this year asking respondents whether they would be more likely to vote for Barack Obama or "the Republican Party's candidate for president" in 2012.
If polling organizations were to find that there is signficant support for an Independent candidate for President, even a generic one, it could very well change the shape of the race, and lead individuals who are considering an Independent run to take the leap.  Isn't it time that polling organizations begin measuring support for alternatives to the Democrats and Republicans, especially given the historic levels of frustration and discontent with the major parties?

There are more Independents in the United States today than there are Democrats or Republicans.  Shouldn't the Independent option get a fair shake in the polls?  Back in April, Ryan Jaroncyk composed a template letter for Independents to send to Gallup urging them to "conduct more regular surveys regarding the option of a third party presidential candidate in 2012, as well as a third major party in national politics at large." Why not consider dropping them a message?

Consent of the Governed

Some noteworthy numbers out of Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 17% of Likely U.S. Voters think the federal government today has the consent of the governed.  Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe the government does not have that consent. . . . .

The number of voters who feel the government has the consent of the governed - a foundational principle, contained in the Declaration of Independence - is down from 23% in early May and has fallen to its lowest level measured yet.

Perhaps it's no surprise voters feel this way since only eight percent (8%) believe the average member of Congress listens to his or her constituents more than to their party leaders. That, too, is the lowest level measured to date.  Eighty-four percent (84%) think the average congressman listens to party leaders more than the voters they represent.

Voter approval of the job Congress is doing has fallen to a new low - for the second month in a row. Only six percent (6%) now rate Congress' performance as good or excellent.

Democrats and Republicans Reach a New Low

A new survey from Rasmussen finds that just 6% of likely voters think the Congress is doing a good or excellent job, compared with 61% who say the Congress is doing a poor job representing the interests of the American people.  From Rasmussen:

Just six percent (6%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Congress' performance as good or excellent, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Last month, Congressional approval ratings fell to what was then a record low with eight percent (8%) who rated its performance good or excellent.

Sixty-one percent (61%) now think the national legislators are doing a poor job, a jump of nine points from a month ago.

The findings are consistent across the partisan spectrum:

With divided control of Congress, neither party's voters are very happy. Eight percent (8%) of GOP voters give Congress positive marks, compared to five percent (5%) of Democrats and six percent (6%) of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. 

A separate poll from Rasmussen finds that a plurality of Americans recognize that the Democrat-Republican Congress is plagued by corruption.  From Rasmussen:

46% of Likely U.S. Voters now view most members of Congress as corrupt. That’s up seven points from June and the highest finding yet recorded.  Just 29% think most members are not corrupt, and another 25% are not sure . . . 

Similarly, a whopping 85% of voters think most members of Congress are more interested in helping their own careers than in helping other people. That’s a record high for surveys stretching back to early November 2006.  Only seven percent (7%) believe most of the legislators are more interested in helping others.

Given these numbers, an obvious question arises: if a wide majority of Americans recognize that the stooges of the Democratic and Republican parties are so plagued by corruption that they are effectively incapable of representing our interests, why would they continue to support Republicans and Democrats in any way, shape or form?  If you support the Democrats or Republicans, you are the problem.

Poll: Majority Recognize Political Bankruptcy of Democratic and Republican Parties

Outright majorities of the American people recognize the simple fact that Democrats and Republicans do not pursue policy objectives for the good of the country, but rather do nothing more than seek political advantage to the detriment of the country.  According to a new survey from The Hill:

The latest opinion poll conducted for The Hill indicated that a majority of voters believe both parties are motivated more by their search for partisan advantage than a desire to enact good policy.

Asked whether President Obama’s party was fighting more for a political boost or for what it truly believes is wise policy, 51 percent of voters selected the former option and 36 percent the latter, a negative margin of 15 points. 

In the case of the GOP, the difference was 19 points, with just 36 percent saying the party was motivated by genuine policy concerns and 55 percent saying their animating force was the pursuit of political advantage.

A similar pattern was seen regarding culpability for Washington’s toxic political atmosphere. Forty-four percent of voters said Republicans were more to blame for hostile partisan rhetoric in the nation’s capital, while 41 percent said the responsibility lay mainly with Obama and the Democrats. 

Civic Discontent and the Limitations of Binary Political Analysis

The third party and independent news feeds lit up today with the release of a new Gallup poll showing record high levels of support for a third party alternative to the Republicans and Democrats among self-described Republicans and Tea Party activists:

Gallup has always found political independents to be most desirous of a third party, and 68% currently are. But right now there is also a significant party gap, with 52% of Republicans favoring a third party, compared with 33% of Democrats.

This is the first time Gallup finds a significantly higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats in favor of a third party. During much of President Bush's term, the opposite was true, with Democrats more likely to favor the formation of a third party. That gap narrowed in 2007, after the Democrats' victories in the 2006 midterms, and there has been a minimal difference between the two parties until the current poll . . .

The increase in Republican support for a third party since 2008 could be an outgrowth of the Tea Party movement, which is closely aligned with the GOP. The poll . . . finds 60% of those who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters in favor of a third party

The results were confusing to dead-enders of the major parties such as Allahpundit at Hot Air.  Excerpt:

My assumption is that partisan support for a third party should spike when a party is out of power and has nothing to lose by splitting (or flirting with splitting) over ideology . . . Conversely, partisan support for a third party should crater when a party is in power and looking to hold together to preserve its legislative majority — or so I would have guessed. But neither the Democratic nor the Republican trend line follows that prediction. From 2008 to 2010, despite total control of government, Democrats’ support for a third party rose seven points. Republican support for a third party also rose by seven points when they had total control of government from 2003 to 2006.

Allahpundit thus neatly demonstrates that, over the last decade, support for a third party has increased across partisan lines no matter what the party composition of government was.  This reveals the limitations of the standard binary system of political thought common to Democrats, Republicans and their mouthpieces in the political press.  As support for the ruling parties drops, it stands to reason that the traditional partisan political matrix would arguably become an ever more unreliable analytical tool.  Though the poll found that there were significant disparities among Independents, Republicans and Democrats in their levels of support for something other than the misrule of the reigning two-party state, the results were remarkably consistent when broken down by ideology rather than partisan affiliation.  From Gallup:

Gallup currently finds essentially no differences in support for a third party by political ideology, with 51% of conservatives, 52% of moderates, and 52% of liberals in favor. Over time, the ideological groups' positions have converged, with conservatives becoming more supportive.

In other words, a majority of Americans on the left, right and center recognize that the Democrat-Republican two-party state and duopoly system of government does not in fact represent the interests of the American people.

Poll: 80% of Americans Open to Third Party Candidate for President, Independents' Independence Extends to the Religious Sphere

An extensive new poll from the Reason Foundation finds that 80% of Americans are open to the idea of voting for a third party or independent candidate in the 2012 presidential election, including 89% of Independents, 86% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats.  In other findings, it also appears that compared with people of other political persuasions, Independents are most likely to express independence not only from party, but also from church, temple or mosque. 

23% of those polled for the survey identified themselves as Independents, compared with 30.5% who confessed they are Republicans and 39% who admitted they are Democrats.  Given that 37% of all adults and 28% of likely voters consistently tell pollsters they are Independents, it may be the case that they are somewhat under-represented in the survey's sample by a margin greater than the poll's margin of error.  Nonetheless, 40% of Independents stated outright opposition to the Democratic and Republican parties, while 30% said they are "closer to" the Republicans and 23% said they lean more toward the Democrats.  Needless to say, Democrats and Republicans prefer the Democratic and Republican parties by wide margins. 

The survey also found that, compared with Republicans and Democrats, Independents are most likely to express independence from religion in addition to party.  Asked what their religious preference is, and prompted with a choice of "Protestant, Catholic, Jewish Muslim, some other religion or no religion," 24.4% of Independents stated that they prefer "no religion," compared with 17% of Democrats and 9.5% of Republicans who said they have no religious preference.  As a group, Independents are also significantly less likely to profess a religion than the population at large.  Overall, 16.2% of the survey's respondents answered "no religion" when asked what their religious preference is.

The survey reports (top-line and cross-tabs) are all available in full at Reason.  This week's column at CAIVN unpacks a few more of the poll's findings.  Excerpt:

Those who [said they were open to a third party candidate for president] included 89% of Independents, 83% of Tea Party supporters, 86% of Republicans, and even 71% of Democrats!  If these results are not simply a statistical fluke, they indicate an increasing openness on the part of the American public to consider political alternatives to the Democratic and Republican parties.  A WSJ/NBC poll from May 2010 found that 31% of Americans – a record high at the time – agreed with the statement that the two-party system is broken and a third party would be good for the country.  A Gallup poll from September 2010 reported that 58% of Americans thought the Democratic and Republican parties do such a poor job of representing the American people that a major third party is necessary . . .

CA: Independents Outnumber Republicans Among Latino Voters

According to California's Secretary of State, the percentage of registered independents in the state is at an all time high, just over 20%.  Earlier this month, an article at the OC Register projected that, based on current trends, independents would outnumber Republicans statewide by 2022.  Interestingly, among Latinos, they already do.  From this week's article at CAIVN:

Voters who decline to state an affiliation with any political party are among the fastest growing segments of California’s electorate.  In 1998, only 14% of California voters chose political independence over party affiliation.  By 2010, that number increased to 20%, while identification with the Democratic and Republican parties fell.  As the Secretary of State’s office reported last week, the number of registered voters who decline to state a party affiliation is at an all-time high [of 20.25%] . . .  while 44% of California voters are Democrats and just under 31% are Republicans.

If current trends continue, it is only a matter of time before Independents overtake Republicans in the Golden State.   A projection published earlier this month in the Orange County Register suggested that Independents could outnumber Republicans statewide by 2022.  Significantly, among Latino voters, they already do.  This is just one finding from a new survey of likely Latino voters published by Republican consultant Bob Moore and pollster Marty Wilson.  The survey was intended to assess ways by which the GOP could gain a larger share of the Latino vote; however, since the report breaks down its findings by partisan affiliation, it also provides a good look at the views of Independent Latinos.

According to the survey, Independents and third party supporters already outnumber Republicans among California’s Latino voters.  61% of respondents to the survey stated that they are Democrats, compared with 21% who identified themselves as decline-to-state voters or third party supporters, and just 18% who said they are Republican. . . .

Read the rest.

Independent in 2012

At the Daily Beast, Douglas Schoen makes the case for an Independent centrist candidate for president in 2012.  Excerpt:

The American people are hungry for a third-party candidate for president, be it a moderate insider or an outsider with a proven record of experience from the business community or the military. . . .  Polling that was conducted before the midterm elections shows great support for a major third party in the United States. . . . A New York Times/CBS News poll that was released in mid-September reported that a majority of Americans think the country needs real, viable alternatives to the Republican and Democratic parties. . . .  a USA Today/Gallup poll released at about the same time as the Times survey found that only one-third of voters say the two parties do an adequate job of representing the American people. Indeed, a solid majority of liberals, moderates, and conservatives in that survey all said a third major party is needed, as did three-quarters of independents. . . .

But the two parties, who agree on nothing else, have shut the door on the possibility by setting up a nominating process with a series of ballot access rules and tests that make it virtually impossible for anyone to run as an independent without joining the Democratic or Republican Party.


America needs a centrist alternative to the dysfunctional party primary process, not only to break the stranglehold of the political elites but to expand the field of candidates and issues that are given serious consideration during the election campaign. The list of potential candidates from either side of the political aisle is much broader and all-encompassing when one holds out the possibility that such a candidate might compete as an independent rather than in one of the primaries. . . . 

He concludes:

The only way any candidate who is committed to real fiscal discipline, social tolerance, and economic revitalization can be nominated for president is on a third-party ticket. . . . unless the system changes and changes fundamentally, individuals with a central role to play in our political process—who can address even more important ideas and questions—will almost certainly be ignored.  That is a profound tragedy.

Majority of Independents Open to Third Party Candidate for President

From this week's column at CAIVN:

A new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling has found that 37% of Americans and 51% of Independents are open to supporting a third party candidate for President in 2012.  And there is good reason to believe these numbers significantly underestimate the level of support for an alternative to the Democrats and Republicans. . . . Of those who are open to a third party alternative to President Obama and his eventual Republican challenger, 48% express support for a centrist candidate who is more conservative than Democrats and more liberal than Republicans, while 30% want a candidate who is more conservative than Republicans and 16% want a candidate who is more liberal than the Democrats. . . . These numbers translate roughly to an 18-19% base-level support for a centrist, third party candidate among the electorate at large. . . .

A look at the poll’s crosstabs shows that Independents are, unsurprisingly, most open to a third party candidate for President in 2012.  51% of Independents expressed openness to the idea, compared to 44% of Republicans and only 24% of Democrats.  Given that Independents and Republicans are much more open to the idea of a third party candidate for President than Democrats are, there is good reason to believe that the Public Policy Polling survey significantly underestimates the level of support for an alternative to the deadlock of Democratic-Republican party politics. . . .

Read the rest. 

To Alter or to Abolish: "When the People Fear the Government, There is Tyranny"

If, as it is stated in the Declaration of Independence, governments are instituted among men to secure inalienable rights, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, then must we not conclude that the reigning two-party state and duopoly system of government has become destructive of these ends?  Over the last year, numerous polls have shown that a wide majority of Americans do not believe the US government has the consent of the governed.  Similarly, an absolute majority of Americans consider the federal government to be "an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens."

An overlooked aspect of the public response to the Tucson massacre reveals the extent to which the American people recognize the reactionary and hysterical character of Democratic-Republican party politics as a grave threat to rights, liberties and the rule of law.  Consider these lines from an NPR commentary by Daisy Hernandez:

I wasn't the only person on Saturday who rushed to her Android when news came of the Tucson shooting. I wasn't looking however to read about what had happened. My auntie had already filled me in . . . What I wanted to know was the killer's surname.

My eyes scanned the mobile papers. I held my breath. Finally, I saw it: Jared Loughner. Not a Ramirez, Gonzalez or Garcia. It's safe to say there was a collective sigh of brown relief when the Tucson killer turned out to be a gringo. Had the shooter been Latino, media pundits wouldn't be discussing the impact of nasty politics on a young man this week — they'd be demanding an even more stringent anti-immigrant policy.

Latinos were not the only folks who were concerned that their community would be demonized because of the actions of the lone gunman.  Muslim advocacy groups also likely breathed a collective sigh of relief when it was reported that "the Tucson killer turned out to be a gringo."  The relief among conservative Republicans was palpable as more details of the shooter's person and biography became public knowledge.  Indeed, in many quarters it turned to rage at their demonization by liberal Democrats, who were likely also relieved that Loughner was not obviously one of them either.  And reasonably so.  After it was reported that Loughner in fact had no party affiliation, none other than Rush Limbaugh launched a tirade against Independents and centrists.

Given the predilection of Democrats and Republicans to hysterical reactionism, many communities and advocacy groups remain justifiably concerned about a potential government-led backlash in the wake of the shootings.  Among them: free speech advocates, gun rights advocates, advocates of open government, advocates for the mentally ill, video game lovers, marijuana legalization advocates, just to name a few.  

It is no secret that the ruling political class, under the hegemony of the Democratic and Republican parties, legislates to the particular rather than the universal.  The immediate response on the part of public officials to any such incident – whether it results in a horrible tragedy or whether a potential tragedy is averted – is almost invariably to call for further restrictions on fundamental rights and liberties.  Americans know this all-too-well.  As Thomas Jefferson famously stated, "When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."  It is time to declare our independence from the tyrannical and totalitarian politics of the two-party state.