Election Highlights

For now, an overview of some significant results from the 2010 elections:

• Rhode Island has elected its first Independent governor, Lincoln Chafee! 
• In Maine's gubernatorial race, Independent candidate Eliot Cutler's last minute surge was not enough to overcome the gap between himself and the Republican front-runner.  Cutler lost by under two percentage points, garnering 36.7% to Paul LePage's 38.2%. 
• In New York, the Green Party's candidate for governor, Howie Hawkins, received enough votes to ensure ballot access for the party for the next four years. On the Libertarian Party line, Warren Redlich appears to have come up about 5,000 votes short of the 50,000 vote threshold. 
• In Colorado, Tom Tancredo demonstrated that it is indeed possible to run a viable, high-profile candidacy for governor under the banner of a third party, in this case, the Constitution Party. 
• Ballot Access News reports that the elections have resulted in some parties gaining qualified status, and others losing it, in states across the country. 

On Eliot Cutler's Independent Candidacy for Governor of Maine

My most recent piece at CAIVN is on the Maine gubernatorial race and focuses on the prospects of Eliot Cutler's independent candidacy following the Democratic and Republican primaries earlier this month:

The Maine gubernatorial race took its final shape last week following the Democratic and Republican party primaries. With the nominations of Democrat Libby Mitchell and Republican Paul LePage, Maine voters will choose from a field of at least five candidates for governor. In addition to Eliot Cutler, there are two more Independent candidates for the office who qualified for ballot access by petition: Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott.

However, among the Independent candidates, the Cutler campaign is widely viewed to have the best chance of giving the Democrat and Republican a run for their money. Indeed, as of February, Cutler had raised more money than both Libby Mitchell and Paul LePage, according to a report at the Augusta Insider.

Strategically, the nominations of Mitchell and LePage are said to bode well for Cutler, who is running on a moderate centrist platform. One commentator at the Portland Press Herald has suggested that the Democrats and Republicans have nominated "fringe candidates" who are "not up to the challenges ahead." At Pine Tree Politics, Clark Phinney agrees, writing, "LePage has the far right lane and Mitchell has the far left lane. That leaves the middle lanes wide open for Cutler to travel through, and, if he plays his cards right, cruise to victory."

Cutler also has recent history and current partisan trends on his side. Two of Maine's last five governors were Independents, and 37% of Maine voters identify themselves as Independents, outnumbering Democrats and Republicans by a comfortable margin (32% and 27% respectively).

However, in one of the few polls measuring public opinion in this race, Rasmussen found 7% support for Cutler, with 46% stating they were "not sure" about their impression of the Independent candidate. This may change relatively quickly as the Cutler camp appears to be preparing an aggressive media campaign, having released a major television spot just days after the primary election.

Is Maine a Bellwether State for Independent Politics? An Interview with Eliot Cutler, Independent Candidate for Governor of Maine

Primary elections are being held in eleven states today, as the New York Times reports. Among them is Maine, which has a wide-open race for governor, for which three independent candidates have already qualified. In preparation for a post on the final shape of the Maine gubernatorial election, I contacted the campaign of independent candidate Eliot Cutler over the weekend, and was kindly granted an interview via email. Though you wouldn't exactly know it from the corporate media, two of Maine's last five governors have been independents, Angus King and James Longley. As stated in the interview, Eliot Cutler believes "voters will make it three for six this fall." Asked why he is running outside the two-party system, Cutler states:

I am running as an Independent because I am one. When I worked for Sen. Edmund Muskie and President Jimmy Carter, the Democratic Party was the party of reform. I believe that at least in Maine, it no longer is. I left the Democratic Party in 2005 . . . I supported a moderate Republican who lost his party's primary to a social conservative in the 2006 governor's race. I have since concluded that the leadership of both parties has become captive to the various special interests that control them and that they are both incapable to governing from the moderate center. I am committed to doing that and to giving voice and representation to what I believe is an overwhelming majority of independent and moderate Maine voters who want to see Maine government work again.

Head over to Third Party and Independent Daily to read the whole interview with Eliot Cutler, independent candidate for governor of Maine.

What are the odds of an independent sweep in the northeast?

In the northeast, three prominent and promising independent candidates for governor continue to attract the attention of commentators who recognize the latent power of those who have declared their independence from the two-party state and the politics of the Democratic-Republican political class. In the Providence Journal, Froma Harrop reflects on the regional trend in a profile of Chafee's candidacy in Rhode Island:

They make less of a ruckus than the Tea Party people, but independents in New England are brewing their own revolution. Third-party governors may have been elected elsewhere -- Walter Hickel in Alaska (1990) and Jesse Ventura in Minnesota (1998) -- but in New England, such candidacies have become almost routine.

Independents are making credible runs for governor in Massachusetts, Maine and Rhode Island. The strongest contender, Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee, is a former U.S. senator and former Republican. Polls show Chafee comfortably ahead of his likely Democratic and Republican rivals.

This regional trend preceded the Tea Party phenomenon. The U.S. Senate's two independents are Connecticut's Joe Lieberman and Vermont's Bernie Sanders, both of whom caucus with Democrats. Connecticut's former governor, Lowell Weicker, had been a Republican-turned-independent. And if elected, Eliot Cutler would be Maine's third independent governor . . .

The third independent running for governor is state Treasurer Tim Cahill in Massachusetts. He and Cutler were Democrats. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Cahill with 23 percent support, putting him a reasonably close third behind incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick's 35 percent and Republican Charles Baker's 27 percent.

On Third Party Strategy and Duopoly Ideology: the Case of the Maine Greens

When partisans of the Democratic-Republican two-party state and duopoly system of government seek to dissuade others from engaging in third party and independent political activism, one of their most common arguments alleges that such efforts will necessarily fail because it is highly unlikely that a third party or independent candidate will succeed in winning the presidency. However, this reveals less about the particulars and possibilities of third party and independent political strategy than it does about the authoritarian cult of the executive fostered by duopolist ideologues who view all politics through the lens of presidential politics. And, like so many of the cliches that pass for thought among partisans of the Democratic and Republican Parties, this one too is entirely backwards.

Unless such a candidate were to come into office as part of a larger third party or independent electoral sweep in the Congress and at the state level, a newly elected third party or independent president would be hobbled and isolated by the ruling Democratic-Republican political class. For this reason, at the very least, it makes more sense for third party and independent political strategists to craft a plan of action that proceeds from the bottom up rather than from the top down.

At the state level, Green Party activists have been struggling with this question in recent months, debating the comparative advantages and disadvantages of a top-down vs. a bottom-up electoral strategy (see, for instance, these Poli-Tea posts from January on building the opposition and February on ballot access law and third party strategy). In Maine, the Green Independent Party has, by necessity, opted for a strategy that focuses on legislative rather than executive contests. Last week, the party's candidate for governor, Lynne Williams suspended her campaign. Via Ballot Access News:

Green Independent Lynne Williams announced today that she's suspending her campaign after falling short of the 2,000 signatures need to qualify for the primary ballot. In a statement, the former head of the Maine Green Independent Party says she'll be focusing instead on getting Green Party candidates elected to state, county and local offices.

See also Derek Viger's take on this development at the Augusta Insider. Though it is unfortunate to be more or less forced to suspend a campaign because of the strictures that maintain the ruling Democratic-Republican ballot access regime, the party can and will now focus its efforts on legislative races which it arguably has a greater chance of winning. From Dave Schwab at Green Party Watch:

On Monday, March 15th, the Green Independent Party of Maine turned in signatures to qualify 18 legislative candidates throughout the state, the second highest total in 12 years of holding official ballot status.

“We made legislative recruitment a top priority this year. With sweeping changes in electoral reform that came out of Augusta last year, we no longer need the governor’s race to keep party status. We turned our resources toward legislative seats, where we have better opportunity for success,” said Anna Trevorrow, Chair of the state Green Independent Party.

The party has nearly doubled its number of qualified candidates from 2008, and has expanded its geographic outreach. The Greens have qualified 15 candidates for State House and 3 for State Senate . . .

“This year we will be focusing on seats we can win with a goal of getting a few Greens elected to the Legislature as well as the local level where there are several Greens currently holding office,” said [Candidate Coordinator Ben] Chipman.

Update: This is not to say that such a strategy is ideal everywhere and at all times, of course. The Green Party is fielding promising candidates for governor in at least five states: Ohio, Nevada, California, Massachusetts and Illinois. Via IPR.