It's Never too Early to Speculate about Future Presidential Elections. Or is it?

For my column at CAIVN this week, I consider some recent speculation regarding the potential third party or independent presidential candidacies of Ron Paul and Michael Bloomberg in 2012. Some excerpts:

Though the 2010 midterm elections have not yet even taken place, political commentators and observers are already speculating about possibilities and prospects for the 2012 presidential election . . .

In recent weeks, there has been some amount of speculation regarding the political ambitions of Republican Congressman Ron Paul and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. . . .

This month, Public Policy Polling found that in a hypothetical three-way race between Barack Obama, Republican Mit Romney and Ron Paul as an Independent or third party candidate, Paul checked in with 13% support. . . .

Though he continually denies that he has any plans to run for president, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg cannot even eat a cheesesteak in Philadelphia without provoking speculation regarding his presidential ambitions. . . .

Yet, Bloomberg and Paul are arguably beyond their political prime. In 2012, Bloomberg will be 70 years old. Paul will be 77. Depending on the results of this year’s elections, the likes of Paul and Bloomberg may also be eclipsed by any number of third party and Independent candidates for Congress, Senate or Governor. . . .

For this reason alone, it should be considered too early to reasonably speculate about the 2012 presidential election.

Personally, I am looking forward to the presidential elections of 2040. If, over the next thirty years, the US electorate proves incapable of retiring the majority of sitting legislators and executives, and if, over the same period, the free market proves incapable of retiring the majority of television talking heads we are forced to tolerate, it is a good bet that by 2040 time itself will have retired them for us.

Read the whole thing, or check out some of the other commentary and columns at the site.