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Manage a Trois
Foreseeing the death, or at least the imminent splitting, of the Republican Party, Michael Hendricks provides a good thumbnail sketch of the history of the two-party system in the US and predicts a three-way race for the presidency in 2012: "it would not surprise me to see three strong contenders for the presidency in 2012, a democrat, a Reagan/Bush republican, and a Goldwater republican."
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I question whether the Republican party will cease to exist as Hendricks predicts so long as it continues to flourish as a fundraising entity. It will be more pragmatic for any conservative faction to vie for control of that fundraising apparatus rather than bolt, start from scratch and automatically look like an impoverished fringe. The GOP has been written off numerous times in the last century (1912, 1936, 1964, 2009)but its institutional resilience, like the Democrats', is the essence of the Bipolarchy.
It'll definitely lead to some nasty primary races, and maybe an independent run or two. Chafee just announced he's running for Governor as an independent.
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